Diabetes ABC Model for estimating cardiovascular events

This is a prediction model for heart disease and stroke using the mean data of cohorts with a minimal set of risk factors of ABC (HbA1c, systolic/diastolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, body mass index, age, sex, disease duration, status of smoking) for estimating the impact of reducing multiple risk factors on event rates in 3 years to inform policies and practices.

Please refer to The Lancet Commission on Diabetes - Use data to transform diabetes care and lives with diabetes (Chan JC et al Lancet 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32374-6 and supplementary materials for assumptions, methods and applications.

Sex (probability of female)
Age (year)
Duration of diabetes (year)
BMI (kg/m2)
Current smoker (probability)
HbA1c (%)
SBP (mmHg)
DBP (mmHg)
LDL-C (mmol/L)